Entrevista · 2022

Sobre Liderança e Alocação de Capital, com Todd Combs (2022)

19 de abr. de 2022 1h vídeo

Fonte: YouTube · incorporado do original; não o hospedamos.

Munger tinha uma curta lista de gestores empresariais que admirava genuinamente, e Henry Singleton — o fundador da Teledyne — ocupava um lugar bem próximo ao topo. Nesta conversa de 2022 com Todd Combs, um dos dois gestores de investimentos que Buffett contratou para ajudar a administrar a carteira da Berkshire, Munger usa Singleton como lente para o tema que considerava o cerne da gestão: a alocação de capital.

Por que assistir. É um tratamento incomumente concreto de uma ideia que soa abstrata. Munger explica por que o histórico de Singleton — recomprar ações quando estavam baratas, emiti-las quando estavam caras e ignorar as convenções de Wall Street sobre como um CEO deve se comportar — representa a alocação de capital feita do jeito certo, e por que tão poucos executivos a dominam. Combs é um interlocutor perspicaz, e o vai-e-vem leva Munger a entrar em detalhes sobre liderança, incentivos e a racionalidade que, no entender dele, separava os grandes gestores dos meramente competentes.

Uma escolha forte para quem se interessa por gestão e alocação de capital, mais do que pela seleção de ações em si. Assista pela publicação oficial no YouTube com o link acima.

Singleton capital allocation leadership

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if you have a genius and you get a power you know it's like give me you gotta take that guy wins all those swim tournaments be a big tall guy he had size 16 feet and they were whipped with all of them into the world and so he happy because of his metal stuff he was like okay it was size 16 she was a website a video about your ordinary beautiful family it's very cool and so he was fun to watch because he was so cool irrational and so imagine you can understand how Berkshire was Warren coming from Investment Management would manage its own pension plans but the world that Henry was in is not at all common for the guy who wrote towards the CEO and just say hello away because he did it way better than that forever because they had silicon rules and conventions and he paid no attention to those many CEOs can't stand having anything around there but that's not Henry and that's not warm but so there are some very close paramounts the thing that's interesting about it is when Henry was buying any stock in gobs that was a very uncommon thing to do and now of course it's very common you could say Henry's triumphs but Henry wouldn't be buying you know August a lot of people buy in stock now but after it's selling for more than it's worth they like promoting their stock higher no matter how it's dry it's better it's amazing we haven't had another Henry in a long time you start to think about it who else is like him he's handled it's been a long time since he's dead it's like we don't have a lot of smart people in the United States but he's hard to think of somebody else he can say is another every single Tom Murphy's another CEO yes Tom is a very talented human being but tell him can't wait it's just blindfolded that is correct and can you get it he also had a long run in the chair can you share some of the characteristics you feel like maybe Tom Murphy said that well Tom was marvelous and what town did was delegated enormously and it was really important you went to visit himself very simple and Henry was very simple as a matter of fact one of the last conversations I had with Henry he called and he knew he was dying he wanted to sell caldine as his final actor Berkshire for stock and I said Henry right issue stock or would give away a lot of businesses we know and like and understand to get it alone because we don't own no other instead because it can't happen and he went on to do what he did but it's just amazing how well they managed everything you aren't going to see many energy class at MIT he found a friend everywhere we talked a lot about the power of the fiduciary King and Charlie and it sounds like a lot of the people were talking about certainly had those the individuals had that in common and it reminds me that you've considered yourself in the top decile and valuing the power of good and great management and you've commented to me and you've still underestimated it your whole life do you have any thoughts or comments you'd like to share around us and how you've identified great management well I think it's a great lesson of these careers is what I call a wooden ones and it wasn't at the best basketball coaching record in the world and nobody else owes me because how do we do it the answer was he concentrated almost 100 percent of the playing time in his top selling players and of course they got better and better very highly experience that's what happens when you get so much power to a wooden or above something you're on you're doing the wooden system and it works like gamework Busters and as an investor if you can find somebody who even has a little many would there are many things alone or many of it and playing that was all being concentrated in them and they have a long run that's freaking a bit give me a very good way to invest I've got another story out there what not normal Caltech has a Rubik Cube contest every year one year the guy came in and getting scramble the cubes and he juggles three or four of them and as it went by he was twirling on his hands even though they were constantly imposed in there nowhere top of that I mean resolved molecules the next year and came a woman she'd give him two accused all scrambled and she looked at it for a long time left in the one on her right hand and put her behind her back and started curling and then press come on full face what's up that really happened there are people who made me feel that you were born in the wrong space so you grew up in Omaha I think everyone here knows the story by now hasn't met Warren and moved from Ohio investing and open Warren's eyes to the power and compound ing 10 grams of cigar Bots if you hadn't met if you hadn't been a lawyer and you hadn't met warrants what do you think you would have been doing in life well I think I would have driven out of law breakfast because I understood my legal income when I was a lawyer and I was shrewd in investing my little pension of saving and I actually had questions again I think I would have just as Henry single woman would look at Texas organ and think I can do that better than that my this ordinance was a genius and he was a representative always developers of Manhattan and being in Vegas and he's kept the name and he just fired all the classes started doing everything doing what his clients had been doing we just developed apartment buildings so we're always trying to see some of that but there aren't many people who can do it there aren't many singles of Pritchards and things Leo Bank was so smart you can't believe in building those buildings every time we built one of those big apartment houses he bought a brownstone but four Brownstones there's no way he had ever heard of you it's a logical thing to do with it and that's the way things over it was just so remorselessly logical you can say that a lifelike Singleton's what it demonstrates is the vast Powers they were remorselessly rational that's actually a good transition the next question so I've anticipated well Henry yourself Warren fiercely independent thinkers which I encourage you attribute in no small parts your experience as a child in Great Depression when asked how old you were if I think it quick when you figured out the secret to life you said quote seven but I realized but I realized everything was a little blockers and there's so much irrationality in the world he went on to say you wanted to make money to have independence of life so the Great Depression was understandably formative for you but many people's worlds struck dramatically while yours seems to have opened up and laid a groundwork for the major mental models and so forth do you have a formative experience this year is not looking for when you were seven upcoming an impression that is led to all of us well of course it was an advantage to see the great diversity there had never been immigration for that long in the Civil Right or it just didn't go away it had fluctuations but basically we went to a mix of pressure and how they throw everything now that they thought they knew how to throw away and it just stayed there and the only thing if I think heard it was World War II in a really interesting case was Germany had wiped out its currency in the Lamar inflation the labeling World War One and credit vast hardship but when Hitler came in with his crazy paranoia and wanted to pre-arm and so forth he created this big guard individual's changianism and Germany in spite of having imported its currency probably in 1938 came along the journey was the PowerHouse of the Earth The Accidental changes and restored Germany and the new rights Mark that Hitler created you know it was spent about a crazy unborn preparation but that made it a very strong currency and by the way I think the government should be issued in the currency not a bunch of private the University of Nebraska and he played them on LM he was mechanically gifted enormously tell us about I mean back and forth and children my age and one day the man got a leak in his house and close some extra cost and he frankly when we're served it's no more left poverty okay he was extra careful things like leaks and of course a surgeon would be pretty dramatic about leaves too if anybody went worse there's this genius language sir a world where the changes as early enough so I have a chance and he said boy he saw all the irrationality taking place he said I'm going to be okay in this world exactly yeah there's going to be opportunity there's so much irrational for the holiday out there and of course that occurs the best in the world too for sure you've mentioned uh you've often said in fact we should all find ways to learn from the imminent dead and some of your Heroes not exclusively Kuan Yew Audubon buzzmark then Chapman George Marshall they all seem to have this sense of Duty and honor as a common threat we also talk about the Rarity of the fiduciary team which they also seem to exhibit are there other traits you see in these individuals that let them to become your Heroes well I like the fiduciary because you think of the difference between somebody like George Washington who voluntarily left power sitting underneath he's terminated Brewers that go into power and start killing people to stay entirely okay this arithm systems and so forth and of course the George Washington's a way to Hell better I don't know exactly how you make George Washington's and why you get Kim Jong-un or recently when you other place certainly the George Washington is a better is one thing the girls were current world was teaching us as our four brothers who gave us term limits were they understood human nature they were they were trying to prevent some major risk and it has worked pretty well so far a couple exceptions here and there yeah oh yeah we've had several attempts to take over the United States but including Aaron Burr in addition to being an independent thinker currently you have insatiable intellectual curiosity I think that's why everyone is here this morning and admires you leads to an incredible range of interests and I've heard you referred to many times as a polymath in a world that's full of Specialists and we've seen in an increasingly specialized how to modern day Ben Franklin you and I have talked about Ben Franklin a lot have you had a chance to see the Ken Burns PBS special I loved it pointed out to these young slaves and he never freedom and so on and so he wasn't perfect but you should all say it but I don't think Warren goes around making these pictures to say he really don't need to be very smart who you are a successful investor and I think Warren is right it's it's a field where the temperament isn't that they have the extra metal horsepower the Henry single man that is helpful but it's perfectly possible to respond to play well if you have direct cameras and just go at it over a long time you talk about me I'm not a problem and that's what I am as a guy who has been able to take moderate Obsession and a long intention span I'm turning them into pretty good results of course along those things sometimes long intentions that will help you a lot if you're reasonably smart of all of your varied interests what do you think what are you the most interested in today architecture no I'm wearing that I'm orange Operation I'm interested in the others too but the ones I can't fix I don't spend much time about I don't know how it takes a paragraph I'd love to be able to wave my hand and saw that problem I don't think that's giving the man that pick some of those problems so I just stay away from the problems that can't be fixed and pick the ones I don't like I remember the failure I don't want to face forever and never catch a fish I have to have some reinforcement so I think some things that can be done and then do but I do think that if you're reasonably obsessed with something even if it's intermittent and you have a long attention strategy working over the serious problems I've got used to stop holding a good answer that's half the secret of a lot investment well these buildings I've been talking you'll get me because I don't have any Windows the Monger building of the University of Michigan so that's because it was so damn big and footprint it has an automatic window shortage well how did I decide to do that well I knew the students would be better up close together get close together I'm going to get window shirts absolutely unavoidable and so there we go how can I handle this well I went to the cruise ships and figured out how they handled because they're a few things people are very happy and most stable but not most but a lot of State rooms are cruise ship can't handle it's real window and maybe we started with Windows and they had a system where you could leave your own place and go up the light in there all kinds of things so I just I just copied cruise ship on architecture what kind of a mind of this idea dormitory imitates a cruise ship but when that's what my mind does at the end you can see it's cool with logical that's again I might say over there too he just he just truly logical but if you don't think of the cruise ship you get the wrong answer I think you told me a story about how the window I've never gone I'm curious but then the cruise ship they actually had no shim and so forth and so on which I think if you Incorporated an admissions for a long time he traveled to more for the room with an artificial window that he charged for the one that had a real window they stopped doing that finally but they did that for years and years now the reason for that was that a Disney window and a crucial it was an artificial window the old starfish came up and went to your children and of course the real one of them couldn't do that because he's pretty fat material in Michigan if I remember correctly is that is that right remember what no you're free forever I used yeah I caused Mexican which you're not available of course the Precast was so much better it turned out to be the toughest winner in the history of Michigan and he had terrible Troublesome quality and safety if they tried to build that building on the window of ford concrete it's way stronger and safer the building that's going in the UCSB has made it away over a thousand pounds per square inch pressure that concrete will Outlast the Paramount that's the right way to do it and can't be done in the field that way it can't be in that way in effect and they have ways of making a joint and be safe so these three cast buildings are marvelous triumphantly human mind you mentioned temperament if I'm going to come back to that in a second but before we do I want to come back to the concept of cigar bites because it's so important to really what led to the Berkshire that we all know and understand today so invest things often referred to as the last liberal art or a social science of sorts it is a social science of course and that plays well into your kind of varied interests and so forth and so coming back to this transition that you hope for and find going from cigar bus to Compounders was that a sudden or a gradual Awakening for you was there an epiphany of sorts correctly everybody who's smarter eventually makes that transaction about Investments of course you can get you a great company great competitive Advanced stay in for a long time that's the easiest and biggest money you can possibly but it's so hard to do because they've been the great companies or things that looked at Great companies up so high that it makes that astrology some work Maryland Morgan banking it's right the quarter of one and they go out to 1550 they said we don't care about Nebraska and of course it was like a self-creating problems it was very unpleasant so that's the trouble is that the money sells so high priced that they make it hard for you again but wouldn't you expect that why would you expect the so like everybody could see some great company of course they're going to bid the price up so high that maybe it's not too good at all was there one stock or business or industry all kind of turning the light switch on for you because Warren was in the investment field before you were you're gonna remember that Warren made a lot of money running these geiger counter over the drivers of the 30s you can find something you can sell everyone for the liquid evaluate load up slowly buy them and you can get these ridiculous bargains and those barriers went away so he really had to change now they haven't gone totally with him it isn't life there aren't some companies that are not great businesses but they're still a good investment I can remember about petroleum one of the biggest Independence I bought that stock personally it's 17 this year Michael immigrates huge buried reserves selling Global value is just an incredible bargain but it was as well ordinary he doesn't commodity type business when it got tripled I sold it's double since then but that's all years ago but it's perfectly acceptable to invest in the Dollar on the drillings of the world but I think the people who tend to get the best results are these fanatics just keep searching for the great businesses and the best of them don't expect to buy 10 or 20 or 30 they you know they got the final one or two that's the right way to do it and but that's all you need is one or two I know the guy who investment banker the bank the Costco copy which was Home Depot Shelton very early we had several but you're not so again those two Investments do you need anymore any in the lifetime I was just making that's what he got us too I regret that as a successful life and that is what we teach in our education today there's some mystery they can teach you so it'll make you better investing it's total there's no way to it going up about a thousand different stocks to be very good ass pictures it says following and you go out of the Thousand whoever you feel like you have to pick a few you have to eat and not what I call a wooden system of Stockton Warren talks about the 20 car hole punch oh I love that he said most people would have better desert results if they got a bunch early in life that you're very interested in Investments you get 20 investments in your life and then you have to quit and put all your money in cash he said yes everybody it was something to do those rules you ever have some promises wouldn't be better I guess right now I think people would feel better is system the people who are milking the money of her fees and commissions they leather up always anything to make the Visa commissions run liberally and I guess it may be Orthodoxy that's what people do and it shouldn't be the Orthodox and sensible people who control money for the long term and but it is the Orthodoxy and just think of the end then of course what happens The Accidental history we have a liquid stock market two things at once it's a place for people who are doing long-term Investments so we're actually going to make their transactions the place for another bunch of people to do casino gambling we mix them up totally it's absolutely insane thing for the country to a very kind of a burger a lot better if we didn't mix up it's like we mixed up running behind me with child prostitution or something it's it's ludicrously crazy but that's what we did and everybody's making money out of it loves it this way the incentives are alive now I will say this the poker tournaments are fashionable people love this craze for poker now it breaks tournaments and gambling instinct is really strong people are gambling the trouble with it is like taking heroin certain percentage of the people they start just over at the room instead of addicted anyway it's crazy we ended up with this it's absolutely crazy the civilization will have a lot better now we do get a certain amount of craziness real estate which doesn't have a liquid Market it isn't like it wouldn't have a lot of excesses of speculation even if the stock market was worried Hillary Clinton's real estate but it wouldn't be as bad as it is now a system first served when I was in the Harvard Law School it was a rare day when they created a majority today maybe they had a once or twice a year now AJ billions of shares and the computers are training with one another one computer algorithm is trying to outweigh the other now what Earthly good is it for our country happens to make the casino part of capitalism aren't more efficient the more we're attracted more and more seductive it's an insane public policy on the other hand I think that chances of changing their practices and in it causes terrible things you've been argue that the cost of great diversion any great diversion brought in Hitler which came pretty close to ending the Civilized world so I think this stuff is quite serious so but I don't think we can do much of us certainly because Global financial crisis yes the global financial crisis absolutely I think if we happen to read the way we did which we've never done on the scale before we might have almost Unholy Financial messes we were headed for something that was going to try to become a great depression and what they do is they feed on themselves the process of capitalism automatically speeds up in both booms and depressions and everything feeds on itself for a while so it's like Auto catalysis and chemistry this is automatic that you get this speed up in both directions which makes it very dangerous not just of the individual investors but the whole civilization I am not being casual when I say that you know at first price came in part because of the Great Depression he never would have been transferred to Germany without that the Great Depression came from Exodus system which in many ways aren't as bad as those we have now and the most cheerful thoughts we should go on to the next question I was going to ask a question about the FED but I'm going to move off of that in the ease of intervention and acting like heroin but Capital allocation enormously important for the compounding over time the role of concentration you discussed and if you have intelligent Capital allocation with intelligent concentration that can lead to outside returns over time all of that goes back to the point of that temperament that you mentioned earlier and something that you and I discussed even the first time that we met what we have some students around what personal temperament factors do you value the most and do you think of attributed to your and Warren success the most and is the one trait do you think that's helped you the most is the best I almost worship them reason you can argue with Henry's kind of thing did too and certainly Warren Buffett does too so people I know are good they all know they feel you have a duty to these becomes wise as you can be by constantly studying things and thinking about it and that I think was partly temperamental and partly with family example in my case my grandfather Munger whose name I told her bear was a self-made salvation a man who is a damn genius and I watched him and his life work pretty well he's not making any mistakes is there a time you enjoy investing most well that's the end of the thing is it's the sewing when you're almost sure to win the most Butters of the reaping and I'm not sure that I don't do it so I like them both but I mean like the sewing better than the reading when you know you had to nail it with every single transaction that we get that's a very satisfying feeling boy likes to tell the story about the debt you had with friends that we could double their money the fastest and they would sometimes be August and sometime in May and so forth well we all had some fluid stretches as young men he was saying that complimentary fashion to be clear but at times he was a very good investor a lot lots of discipline but it was so easy for him is to buy these laggards he made so much money of course he would keep doing it and you can argue that it was a kind of a hard movement towards to be able to liquidate his partnership in like a world where people were going crazy even people were making the money just quit it's kind of interesting to think about modern day brochure obviously was running at geiger counter he had Blue Chip Stamps and you had the first car detailing all three of which you know more or less don't exist or significantly Raw well the money and wealth remains but the businesses are gone right they were never going to live a blast look we run so much money out of Oklahoma that still works I think it's a little harder I think Warren had the perfect time to be the value investor in those early days are you about some little insurance company was it one-time service one day I couldn't buy very much you know occasion of guaranteed someone else buying some in transparency when we brought in the most amounts of our stock was in 74-75 and so on that was a very good attack everybody that was the worst crunch in 50 years and we were very lucky to have money on hand at that time most people we don't have tons of money to invest in the Bible we've been in it for a long time we just write it out my Berkshire stock has gone down 50 three times in my life that's one of the most successful examples you can find of something that works but it's still and of course can you imagine an ordinary Investment Management from saying we don't mind going down 30% right they've been terrible it always fired and that means that 95 of the big time conventional investing the closet indexes and that again is a deep moral compromise it's governed by unsaturated he said none of us can do anything about it's almost as ridiculous as having a stock market which is also a gambling power and they can't avoid it they would say I can't do it and the university endowment officers also have to be closet indexers by the standards of University of God now I guarantee you one thing that we're not I'm guarantee what they can single one would never have been look at the system look at the outcomes and I'll show you the incentives the incentives are describing it you take the modern system of this one I would say the modern big tenant that's something he shifted into the shadow Banks and the other forms of private Equity it's stitches so huge and there's so much money and so much but a lot of closet indexing in that too you don't want to do the right same thing it's not my saying we're not going there I want to get to index funds in a second what I do I don't want to leave this topic about compound there's that one last question so Einstein called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world Warren has said find someone hard working intelligent and honest if you don't have a third Run for the hills don't worry about the first two you've spoken about the value of temperament and staying rational this morning Warren talks about entering a zero into a multiplicative series and you talk about avoiding path dependencies and Lollapalooza finding wild palooza effects and the power of delayed gratification aren't all of these forms of maximizing compounding in a qualitative form well sure of course it was so obvious to anyone expecting a wall if I help some businessmen do something very transactions they got a feeling how could that be a potential compared to ranking transactions like he was maybe amazing correct of course there's some there's huge potential that you can do without compounding correctly but of course it's very hard to do the competition is very intense and you have to stay out of a seductive craziness goes on around you at a time when they're huge in cellular pressures and they are just incentive pressures we all like to do what other people are doing none of us wants to move to the North Pole and sit there I'll come back to index funds now you recently made some comments about index funds in a particular Emperor and there's a big movement toward everything ESG etc with these uh ISS class Lewis and so forth I hate that I regret Russ Lewis as a protection racket they create the hazard and the silver protection it's like the mafia by the way nobody is closing there's anything wrong with it we live in a world where you could actually go into a business as evil as that and think you're doing the Lord's work but you know his first thought he was doing the Lord's work already last so it's like we have a record of his last thought on the bunker you know what it was and showing people turned out didn't deserve their great room it was their fault not his I think you jump to the end of my question which was basically that Paul you know and Paul Graham recently had this fantastic Beast titled heresy on the value of not shutting down outlier opinions the dangers of going down that path and so forth which obviously comes back to some degree of Germany as well if uh Mark Andreessen actually I know you saw was that a funny tweet the other day about the irony of index funds I don't know if anyone saw this in the insurance he says they lack the confidence to pick stocks but possess the confidence to redesign Society I know that it's accepting jokes there are a lot of people who think they would run the world but they'd Run the World by eliminating still with things like vaccines you can steal the first thousand other machines there are a lot of crazies out there I feel like it's an agency issue where net index funds provide better performance at lower fees it's more in yourself and pointed out but that this is just a standard agency issue and you we actually is a different Vector on the very fiber helpers and middlemen that you know and more and have warned everyone about everybody into the Nifty Fifty by the way they only charge a quarter of a point for that in other words that whole Investment Management they were the leaders of the investment management and went on for what 20 years it turns quarter of a point and everybody got these fabulous results because of the coolest guy I am but it was an interesting period to watch and it's hard to have a similarly when you're taking an indexing fifteen hundred thousand stocks that close to the market so it'll work for a while but eventually if you did too much ethics you know it would have no chance of working if he picked you all over again it's been set softly in the world and that AI will eat software and we've talked a lot about the carnegies of the Rockefellers and the melons for these unbelievable businesses but they were massively Capital intensive there are any single digits of returns and so forth and so on but yeah but they got rich but they didn't so long and they caught you can argue with Roger probably first 30 or 40 years they sold kerosene for lighting and dining I dominated it all over the world and as that business died we've added some electricity and it was way better than their own women so you could argue they were just damn watching the thing because they were forced out of one business God gave them a Better Business and they had the positions and all the big oil fields to write it down and they kept inventing new technologies so whatever well we thought was there it was really a little more in the price of oil kept going up a level it's interesting now about that is that nobody thinks it's illegal for a bunch of sovereign Nations to get a map of cartel on producing their own oil and everything can't happen because after all they're a bunch of companies have done that and but it could happen and you would argue if so it would be a good business as long as cartel lasts yes similar is there only what three or four players in the making fertilizer yeah and that's an interesting thing to watch I don't know how it's oh it's great they want anymore Yeah well yeah I see nobody knows but there are going to be some sort of chartel white things done by governments a summary of my money back but the weak link is always for a cartel break though yeah of course see we have 10 trillion dollars in market cap amongst five phenomenal businesses that really don't require any Capital whatsoever when you look at that contrast today to what Carnegie's and melons and Rockefellers build it's all obvious in hindsight do you have any opinion without getting into name specific or anything on whether those modes will be as durable well I think the temperaments of what do I find the most interesting in many ways of the mountains and I feel as temple runs still work I think if you're like the melons or Carnegie or even if it still works they were pretty hard-working aggressive talented people but there was some look at it you just have to think about a Carnegie steel let's do it still eventually went to hell absolutely went to hell he wasn't building something that works lasted a lot longer you can argue that rock and roll is empire was the only business of the old days that really you can't understand because everybody else so those are the type of mortality they all die or whatever most people in this room probably don't know we actually virtue our own part of Rocky Union tank car those butter rocket pillars yes a lot of that's actually a good credit into the inflation that we're seeing in the environment and some of us have lived through it but not in the same way that you and Warren saw the destructive inflation in the 70s what should investors be thinking about when looking at companies with potential inflation to the 70s as a backdrop I'm saying it will but I don't think most people are going to do wonder what better off at least the people who have any money be way better off the orange inflation so it says the question of how most of them are probably for most people are going to suffer it I used to discover as little as you but I think it's the nature of things and a bunch of democratic politicians will eventually threat too much money now in my life I would argue that what we have now is so valuable the fact that the currency went down by 80 or 90 the purchasing power over the course of this has 100 Years of achievement it was worth having the depreciation of the currency to get the growth I don't know the bad bargain for civilization so far on the other hand the weimars the answer is always to find the best business you can at the best price regardless and the capital intensity is certainly an aspect of that pricing power yes but think of what's resulted that I am just think of what I've seen away and all the way department stores all the big news for monopolies U.S steel amphoa pretty much Army Airlines yes compared to what they wanted General Motors that stood in the world like in colossal eventually White Brothers on shareholders and part of its own workers vaccines developing the GE well cheating from the worst cases of all because I knew Jeff Wells and it was Michael and he was intelligent when he was a crazy friend to do well and said something he was very competitive he wanted to win and called me wanted to win business and so forth just together that regulates us and then he was lying about what we're going to accomplished and I think that book lights out which Chronicles from the climate he ought to be required reading never been to school but not really enough money it won't be because they don't want a family anymore it should be anybody is not red lights out you should buy a degree now there's a creative destruction that you've seen yeah it's awesome do you do you feel I think the standard pod is that it's accelerating because of software and computers I bet they contribute to a lot of the changes destroying some people I think capitalism is the drugs a lot of people this is the nature of those the devil is part of the creating process do you feel like they're made of change is accelerating well that's a very interesting question so I heard that in two ways to make the case for yes and you communication or no in case for no is of course it's the most invasive needs of somebody will satisfied the average life expectancy is 80 years for a male or something in America he gets color television can't travel modern medicine air conditioning is pretty much all the reasonable laws for the man can have and it's hard to even imagining something that is more important than authority too so in that sense for a great majority of the progress we need to do behind us but there's another sense it's just amazing whether he's finding out to be doing I'm not always impressed by the vacuuming insurance and underwriting a little bit better that's distance it's like tweaking all the oil engines yeah an extra horsepower but what's already been intuited it's just absolutely unbelievable to get all my application in the last two or a year 200 years ago we go yeah sleep or anymore never leave a little about you were born in I mean fungus who couldn't fix watching our children died nasty diseases lost the power of human Ingenuity and compounding that there were more people that had been born and died in this world before 200 years ago and all of human history and yet 99.9 The Innovation acts the wheel and fire and gives us it could have been created in the last 200 years exactly what's happened and of course that makes some people optimistic you know I think is there going to be some major Calamity of people who murdered in the next other years what's the chances of a really majority I don't know about you but it certainly is at least 10 percent I do Florida gets close to nuclear war as we are now with these paranoid rulers and these dumb it was an old history in inside you go in and somebody else foreign because you're probably these bags I'm going to kill it already that one like you and I mean it you know the city you just killed them all so it was it was genocide

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